The NOOPS Theses
Scored against the market. Each verdict marks the call, not the tape — a bearish thesis over a falling basket reads TRACKING. All moves measured since each thesis was published, against the S&P 500. 4 tracking · 3 against · updated 02 Nov 2026.
Market-scored theses
WATCHwatch
The Agent Runtime Layer
+42.9ppvs SPY · abs +57.6%
TRACKING↑ call
The Home Watershed
+38.6ppvs SPY · abs +53.3%
TRACKING↑ call
Hardware's Moment
+38.2ppvs SPY · abs +52.9%
TRACKING↑ call
The Smiling Curve
+27.8ppvs SPY · abs +42.5%
AGAINST↓ call
The SaaS Apocalypse
+27.3ppvs SPY · abs +42.0%
AGAINST↓ call
Microsoft Has Lost the Plot
+25.3ppvs SPY · abs +40.0%
WATCHwatch
Technical Deflation
+14.9ppvs SPY · abs +29.6%
TRACKING↑ call
Infrastructure Winners
+10.3ppvs SPY · abs +25.0%
AGAINST↑ call
Agents as Primary Users
-2.5ppvs SPY · abs +12.2%
WATCHwatch
The Efficiency Paradigm
+0.5ppvs SPY · abs +15.2%
Qualitative theses — no market basket yet
QUALITATIVE
Data Is the New Metadata
no market basketv20
QUALITATIVE
Full-stack sovereignty: a frontier lab must own the stack down to the silicon
no market basketv7
QUALITATIVE
Good Enough Is Good Enough
no market basketv42
QUALITATIVE
Harness Engineering
no market basketv45
QUALITATIVE
Labour Displacement
no market basketv39
QUALITATIVE
Processes Are Harnesses
no market basketv28
QUALITATIVE
The Cultural Adoption Curve
no market basketv36
QUALITATIVE
The Kuhn Paradigm Shift
no market basketv40
QUALITATIVE
The Tiny Teams Thesis
no market basketv15
QUALITATIVE
Zombie SaaS
no market basketv1