Microsoft Has Lost the Plot
Microsoft's strategic position is deteriorating despite surface-level AI investment. They lack internal frontier models and depend on entity/openai, which is itself strategically unfocused — the Forbes "OpenAI Graveyard" documents deals and products that never materialised, while Anthropic's focus on a smaller number of things continues to pay off. Copilot has "Product Market Failure" (John's phrase). The entity/microsoft integration of Anthropic into Copilot Cowork confirms
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | 521.91 | -1.6% | +40.0% | +25.3pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 755.72 | -1.8% | +14.7% | — | — |
| Basket: Single-name thesis | |||||
Recent evidence 133 signals filed
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- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v30, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 133 signals filed to this thesis
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3 theses are currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +12.2% since published; Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +40.0% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +42.0% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.