The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+38.6pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+53.3% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+14.7%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 884.74 | -5.3% | +134.2% | +119.5pp | — |
| ARMARM Holdings | 205.97 | -10.0% | +38.4% | +23.8pp | — |
| AAPLApple | 344.63 | -1.2% | +33.1% | +18.4pp | — |
| QCOMQualcomm | 164.79 | -11.1% | +31.1% | +16.4pp | — |
| INTCIntel | 65.76 | -28.6% | +29.5% | +14.8pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 755.72 | -1.8% | +14.7% | — | — |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 267 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v40, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 267 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
3 theses are currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +12.2% since published; Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +40.0% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +42.0% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.