Theses 01 / 20 AGAINST published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 06 Sept 2026 · v37

Agents as Primary Users

AI agents are becoming the primary users of digital infrastructure — not humans. Mark's formulation: "AI AGENTS ARE A DEATH SENTENCE FOR THE INTERNET" — meaning specifically the ad-driven, attention-mediated, human-facing internet. Agents don't use travel booking portals, they call APIs directly. The middlemen die. Booking.com and Expedia are explicit casualties. OpenAI's agentic shopping with Etsy/Shopify/Walmart/Amazon is building agent-commerce infrastructure. Visa is crea

-2.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+12.2% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+14.7%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
PLTRPalantir 184.11 -6.3% +24.5% +9.8pp —
PATHUiPath 13.73 -0.4% +23.1% +8.5pp —
AMZNAmazon 240.35 -1.4% +13.0% -1.7pp —
METAMeta 614.99 -1.5% +7.3% -7.4pp —
GOOGLAlphabet 279.84 -1.4% -6.7% -21.4pp —
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 755.72 -1.8% +14.7% — —
Basket: Agent platforms, agent commerce, and automation incumbents

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When we're wrong

3 theses are currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +12.2% since published; Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +40.0% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +42.0% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.