The Agent Runtime Layer
A new computational layer is crystallising between models and applications — the agent runtime. This is where orchestration, tool use, memory, and identity live. The question of who controls this layer is the central competitive battleground.
+42.9pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+57.6% · 4 instruments
S&P 500 same period+14.7%
Call directionWatch
No directional call — this basket is the thesis’s instrument panel.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOGDatadog | 235.27 | -11.5% | +101.9% | +87.3pp | — |
| MDBMongoDB | 352.96 | -8.3% | +38.4% | +23.7pp | — |
| NETCloudflare | 280.70 | -9.5% | +32.5% | +17.9pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 755.72 | -1.8% | +14.7% | — | — |
| Basket: Instrument panel: where the runtime layer accrues if the thesis holds | |||||
Recent evidence 402 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v33, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 402 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
3 theses are currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +12.2% since published; Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +40.0% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +42.0% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.