The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+27.3pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+42.0% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+14.7%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIGFigma | 21.65 | -3.0% | +1.1% | -13.6pp | — |
| ADBEAdobe | 250.23 | +0.9% | +2.4% | -12.3pp | — |
| NOWServiceNow | 105.12 | -4.1% | +2.6% | -12.1pp | — |
| CRMSalesforce | 229.17 | -0.7% | +23.9% | +9.2pp | — |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 104.29 | -3.4% | +29.6% | +14.9pp | — |
| WDAYWorkday | 197.82 | +1.2% | +52.5% | +37.8pp | — |
| TEAMAtlassian | 191.72 | -6.1% | +181.6% | +166.9pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 755.72 | -1.8% | +14.7% | — | — |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 256 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 256 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
3 theses are currently moving against us — Agents as Primary Users, +12.2% since published; Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +40.0% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +42.0% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.